2016 was harsh. Many studios closed. Some hit games didn't sell. But overall the industry grew as always. Superdata claims we nearly reached $100b in 2016.
Meanwhile China became the largest gaming market of the world thanks to mobile. Talking mobile: it is now the largest segment of our industry. As forecasted by so many.
From my experience and point of view 2017 will be a hard year. In fact it will be more difficult than this year. For various reasons.
First some AAA IP's won't sell as good as they were, as already shown in 2016. The primary reasons are that gamers spend more time in less games and the competition in terms of price. f2p taking over even more market share does further impact the $60 AAA game market.
And of course mobile. Mobile will continue to grow. We will see new games entering the top 10 which do more and more revenue each year. The PC won't suffer, the consoles neither, but their growth will slow down. Nothing major but it will have an impact on studios relying on the old publisher model - meaning more studios will cease to exist.
We also will see a more dramatic impact on the crowded market space. Too many titles, not enough time to play them all. Remember? We will spend more time in less games. So the only way combating this is to bind your fanbase to your game - this means you must update your game and service it beyond its lifecycle. Games as a service. Invented by MMO RPG's now a must have for all games.
Update: read this:
http://steamed.kotaku.com/none-of-2016s-most-played-steam-games-came-out-in-2016-1791048654
We will see an invasion of non gaming IP's to the mobile space as the desperate publishers try to fight high acquisition costs with using foreign IP's. This won't work for most of them as we have so often experienced in the past: the 80's, 90's, 2000's all had those waves and most publishers failed with them unless they can afford the mega IP's - which they can't. If they afford it they won't have enough money left for the game - meaning they ship shitty games on large IP's - failing. We have seen that as well in the past.
VR will continue to be a toy - not a market (yet). So investors will shy away, studios will close. VR will be in a crisis waiting to be revived.
The Switch will ship and sell ok. Nintendo's IPs will be strong, and depending on Nintendos policy to sign up other developers the console will not rival the PS4 or XBox, it will rival Nintendo's old 3DS system, cutting their own market share.
Consoles will drop in price for Christmas 2017 and for the first time go under $199 - embracing new markets. But those new customers won't buy $60+ software, they will buy already discounted or used software - as we have seen in the past when that happens. Still the market will grow and reach its peak - and drop after that staring 2018.
We will see a new creative push from the III side. What is III? Triple Indie, from pro's who left AAA companies and going independent we will see a wave of really good titles created for lower budgets and selling enough to keep those new studios alive.
This means we see a remix of studios. Old ones go, new ones come - and in large numbers. We need to learn all those new studio names otherwise we lose track - so many will be there. All over the world.
2016/12/28
2016/12/25
My Game of the Year 2016
Before I spoil my pick let me explain my situation so you understand why I picked this game.
First I love slow paced games. Second I love games with progression, so I can build up characters, items or what else. That surely points in the direction of RPG's, but i am kind of overfed with them. Both MMO RPG and Single Player. The reason is lack of innovation, most games all now look or act like games I played before - so I got bored of most RPG's; and note that great graphics and story don't do it for me either as I skip story (yeah I know ...) and good graphics are normal for games now.
Second I am in the industry since 30 years meaning I have played thousands of games. So even little things in UI or game play disturb me and I quit - and play the next.
Third I can extrapolate how most games unfold game mechanic wise if I played it for 30 minutes. This makes it challenging to keep me interested, to surprise me or to overcome my threshold.
Fourth, I am "old" - this mean reflexes are less and too twitchy games don't do it for me - unless the game designer put in classes which can be played by older players. Just like World of Tanks did - or recently Overwatch.
So which game did all this to me to get my GOTY pick?
The Division by Ubisoft.
Yes, it had a rocky start regarding update policy, but the recent patches corrected most of it. I love the game as I can pick my pace. The game doesn't force me into anything, which is exactly what I need. Sometimes I can just go for a stroll into the city and still have fun. Or go on a raid or adventure. OR find new gear. Or craft. OR join friends and do silly things.
Close contenders? The Last Guardian - as it is art. Dishonored 2 - as I can pick my pace.
2016/12/21
"In the next few years all games will be online" (Teut 2006)
When I said in 2006 "In the future all games will be online" I got criticized by a lot of senior devs still working on pure retail games. Today of course it seems obvious this is the case. Even triple AAA games designed to be "single player" have online modes, online accounts, post launch add ons via online, online trophies and more to ensure a higher engagement and online copy protection.
The primary reason why online works so well is you can update the game frequently and further retain your players and fans. This can be done in a way that your game virtually never dies. Many MMO's from the 90's are still alive and despite their ancient technology they are still being played.
So this isn't bad news here:
https://www.asheronscall.com/en/forums/showthread.php?73423-Asheron-s-Call
This is good news as it proves how long these games can live. Nearly two decades. Think about it. For a developer having such a title in your portfolio means you have a revenue stream which can take you through years which shake us up badly - like 2016 where many devs were being closed.
Games like Destiny will live until the console cycle ends. And that is a fps. RPG's of course were the first movers but most genres will or have already moved into the persistent universe.
The problem? If too many players are bound to their online games they won't buy as many games as before. So the industry need to rely on growth instead of reselling titles to existing player bases. But this only lasts so long - until they are overfed like it happens this year.
The lesson? You need to design your game to last. The rules you need to apply are hard to learn and to grasp but have been laid out decades ago by people like Raph Koster or Rich Vogel. Google them, read all their talks. They are well worth it.
And if you need help - ask me. I am consulting in this space since 10 years.
The primary reason why online works so well is you can update the game frequently and further retain your players and fans. This can be done in a way that your game virtually never dies. Many MMO's from the 90's are still alive and despite their ancient technology they are still being played.
So this isn't bad news here:
https://www.asheronscall.com/en/forums/showthread.php?73423-Asheron-s-Call
This is good news as it proves how long these games can live. Nearly two decades. Think about it. For a developer having such a title in your portfolio means you have a revenue stream which can take you through years which shake us up badly - like 2016 where many devs were being closed.
Games like Destiny will live until the console cycle ends. And that is a fps. RPG's of course were the first movers but most genres will or have already moved into the persistent universe.
The problem? If too many players are bound to their online games they won't buy as many games as before. So the industry need to rely on growth instead of reselling titles to existing player bases. But this only lasts so long - until they are overfed like it happens this year.
The lesson? You need to design your game to last. The rules you need to apply are hard to learn and to grasp but have been laid out decades ago by people like Raph Koster or Rich Vogel. Google them, read all their talks. They are well worth it.
And if you need help - ask me. I am consulting in this space since 10 years.
2016/12/17
People hate Mario on iOS - do they?
Mario mobile is upon us, at least the iOS world. And check this out:
https://sensortower.com/ios/us/nintendo-co-ltd/app/super-mario-run/1145275343/#review-history?breakdown
The number of 1 star reviews is staggering. Of course most people are angry about the $9.99 paywall after the first world. So there are two reasons why:
1) The way they build in the paywall is not nice to consumers. f2p managed to find ways way better than this.
2) Users are trained now games are free. 95% of all revenue and sales are f2p games. And as I am telling in many of my talks: most mobile gamers are new to games, so the heck they know they need to pay $10 after three levels. f2p would at least allow you to have fun for free and enhance it by paying what you want, not what Nintendo wants.
Some interesting observations about Mario.
There are many f2p mechanics inside the game, like multiple currency, the way they unlock things etc. Paid apps usually do not have this.
So I think the game was planned at f2p and Nintendo pulled the plug late and removed f2p and implemented the paywall.
Huge mistake in terms of revenue, but hey, its Nintendo and their IP, they might have other plans.
The UI is really bad at places. Their friends list? Linking your game with accounts? Thats not how mobile games look like. In fact many of the bad UI habits are pure Nintendo Wii/WiiU/3DS adaptions. We even have the dreaded friend codes :/
There are better runners in the app store than Mario. But hey its Mario. Revenue wise it was a bad decision to remove f2p. The best selling runner Subway surfer does more revenue each year than Mario will do in a life time.
(Link with regards to@ ZhugeEX)
https://sensortower.com/ios/us/nintendo-co-ltd/app/super-mario-run/1145275343/#review-history?breakdown
The number of 1 star reviews is staggering. Of course most people are angry about the $9.99 paywall after the first world. So there are two reasons why:
1) The way they build in the paywall is not nice to consumers. f2p managed to find ways way better than this.
2) Users are trained now games are free. 95% of all revenue and sales are f2p games. And as I am telling in many of my talks: most mobile gamers are new to games, so the heck they know they need to pay $10 after three levels. f2p would at least allow you to have fun for free and enhance it by paying what you want, not what Nintendo wants.
Some interesting observations about Mario.
There are many f2p mechanics inside the game, like multiple currency, the way they unlock things etc. Paid apps usually do not have this.
So I think the game was planned at f2p and Nintendo pulled the plug late and removed f2p and implemented the paywall.
Huge mistake in terms of revenue, but hey, its Nintendo and their IP, they might have other plans.
The UI is really bad at places. Their friends list? Linking your game with accounts? Thats not how mobile games look like. In fact many of the bad UI habits are pure Nintendo Wii/WiiU/3DS adaptions. We even have the dreaded friend codes :/
There are better runners in the app store than Mario. But hey its Mario. Revenue wise it was a bad decision to remove f2p. The best selling runner Subway surfer does more revenue each year than Mario will do in a life time.
(Link with regards to
2016/12/09
The Problem of 2016 ... (update 2)
... is that major blockbusters which usually sold millions aren't. The latest iteration of Call of Duty seems to be 70% under previous sales (unconfirmed number), Titanfall 2, the best rated game of the recent shooters was sandwiched between the CoD and BF1 release - has trouble to sell. Watchdogs 2 - much better than the first and some even claim their sandbox is better than GTA V - doesn't sell well. And one of my favorites Dishonored 2 isn't selling well despite excellent marketing presence & reviews in all countries.
Even though the consoles are selling better than the last generation and the PC market is stronger than ever.
Why?
As usual there isn't a single reason.
Genre Overlap
If three major shooters target the same audience some of them will suffer. Thats a logical reason. That EA launched Titanfall 2 between BF1 and CoD is bad - even though they claim differently. Experience from the past tells us that Titanfall 2 is dead and it is EA's fault. March would have been a much better month for it. Some might argue CoD and BF1 target different audiences, but no, both target male 13-26's - the difference is style & taste and preference.
Games last longer
Something which we all saw coming and has started with the last console generation and really took off 2016: games are now launched as a service and try to stay alive as long as possible. For this they adapt a lot of MMO techniques and even some f2p mechanics. Check out Destiny or The Division, those are as close to f2p online games as they can be but are premium titles.
Even BF1 has mechanics inside like progression, unlocks etc. to keep players busy for months. And players love it - and play for weeks and months. No one will buy CoD if they are deep into BF1 - or any other game which operates as a service.
This trend will get even worse next year. So the future isn't releasing your key IP every year, but to keep your key IP alive for years with one launch. Just like MMO's do.
Bored
Some players are bored as the sequels are "more of the same". So they skip a generation and play something else. Some are even bored with the systems and play someplace else. Like on mobile. Or they play other games which are unique. The sales of some of those titles being special show that effect.
The jump between last and current generation of these sequels isn't as large as it was in the past.
Not enough time to play
There are just 24 hours per day. Years ago you spend a lot of these hours in games. Now? You spend hours checking social media, your mobile phone, your day to day tasks in your favorite mobile game, on Netflix binging a series. Here is the problem. People do not have the time anymore to sink into a single game. There is enough competition of entertainment in your hands which distract you from hourlong gaming. And its getting worse as the choices are increasing and everyone fights for the users time.
This is the primary reason why sales aren't the key indicator anymore - it is engaged users. Something Activision is even now telling their shareholders in their calls.
Fucking Expensive
Sorry for my words, but really. Games are expensive to develop and if you try to do a AAA product we talk millions, often hundreds of millions. The games industries blockbusters are more expensive to create than most Hollywood movies now. And mobile games aren't easy either. Meanwhile we talk budgets of millions too. This leads to the conservative sequel effect we now encounter even in mid console cycle where we usually see creative sparks. Not this time.
And games are expensive. $69. WTF. Add a season pass. WTF #2. Locked user, he won't be able to spend more for another games. Years ago he could buy two or three for that money he now spends on one of his favorite games.
Oh, and now upgrading consoles. The new thing. So go Pro on PS4 for some new games. The core will do, the rest will follow. Another $399, maybe less when you sell your old (which lessens sales of new consoles).
Too much choice
The app store showed it. Steam is following. Too many games. Too much choice. The entry barrier for world wide publishing is gone - the flood gates are open and thousands of titles are being released.
Yes, a lot of crap is among them but here and there we find gems which never would have seen the light of the day in the past. It is amazing, and in my opinion the only light in the darkness of 2016.
This means
The market is cleaning itself. You either are among the top 10% of the low key indie type titles. The middle will die, quickly.
This means if you run a studio you either go big or you go small, lean agile. There is no other choice anymore.
You see studios dying. Or being closed. 2016 was already bad, 2017 will be worse. Consolidation is happening the the big ones eat up the talent left and form further mega studios to create their huge titles. Some will form smaller studios and lean produce creative gems. And many will fail. And the cycle repeats.
And beware when the current console generation is shrinking. It is not as far away as we hope. The last generation lasted 8 years. This one? Maybe 8 years, maybe 9. They hope to prolong it by updating their hardware. So we are in year 3, 5 more to go. Good luck boys and girls. Make great games and do not follow the main stream.
Update
Some feedback noted that NPD isn't tracking digital sales and most customers moved to digital now. This might make the numbers a bit better but not really so. Todays games with their 60GB downloads aren't for everyone (see previous post).
Another note regarding FPS: Overwatch seems to have taken a lot of these customers and locked them into their grind feast, so they won't have time for others as well. A title I overlooked in the above post.
Pro Tip for AAA pubs: there are more games out there then FPS. Do not forget the genres other people play or mid sized publishers will take them away from you.
Update 2
Most of the hit games I mentioned including CoD, Titanfall 2, Dishonored 2 are on sale for half the price. An indices that they don't sell as well as expected and wrongfully training customers its better to wait than to buy on release. Bad habit.
Even though the consoles are selling better than the last generation and the PC market is stronger than ever.
Why?
As usual there isn't a single reason.
Genre Overlap
If three major shooters target the same audience some of them will suffer. Thats a logical reason. That EA launched Titanfall 2 between BF1 and CoD is bad - even though they claim differently. Experience from the past tells us that Titanfall 2 is dead and it is EA's fault. March would have been a much better month for it. Some might argue CoD and BF1 target different audiences, but no, both target male 13-26's - the difference is style & taste and preference.
Games last longer
Something which we all saw coming and has started with the last console generation and really took off 2016: games are now launched as a service and try to stay alive as long as possible. For this they adapt a lot of MMO techniques and even some f2p mechanics. Check out Destiny or The Division, those are as close to f2p online games as they can be but are premium titles.
Even BF1 has mechanics inside like progression, unlocks etc. to keep players busy for months. And players love it - and play for weeks and months. No one will buy CoD if they are deep into BF1 - or any other game which operates as a service.
This trend will get even worse next year. So the future isn't releasing your key IP every year, but to keep your key IP alive for years with one launch. Just like MMO's do.
Bored
Some players are bored as the sequels are "more of the same". So they skip a generation and play something else. Some are even bored with the systems and play someplace else. Like on mobile. Or they play other games which are unique. The sales of some of those titles being special show that effect.
The jump between last and current generation of these sequels isn't as large as it was in the past.
Not enough time to play
There are just 24 hours per day. Years ago you spend a lot of these hours in games. Now? You spend hours checking social media, your mobile phone, your day to day tasks in your favorite mobile game, on Netflix binging a series. Here is the problem. People do not have the time anymore to sink into a single game. There is enough competition of entertainment in your hands which distract you from hourlong gaming. And its getting worse as the choices are increasing and everyone fights for the users time.
This is the primary reason why sales aren't the key indicator anymore - it is engaged users. Something Activision is even now telling their shareholders in their calls.
Fucking Expensive
Sorry for my words, but really. Games are expensive to develop and if you try to do a AAA product we talk millions, often hundreds of millions. The games industries blockbusters are more expensive to create than most Hollywood movies now. And mobile games aren't easy either. Meanwhile we talk budgets of millions too. This leads to the conservative sequel effect we now encounter even in mid console cycle where we usually see creative sparks. Not this time.
And games are expensive. $69. WTF. Add a season pass. WTF #2. Locked user, he won't be able to spend more for another games. Years ago he could buy two or three for that money he now spends on one of his favorite games.
Oh, and now upgrading consoles. The new thing. So go Pro on PS4 for some new games. The core will do, the rest will follow. Another $399, maybe less when you sell your old (which lessens sales of new consoles).
Too much choice
The app store showed it. Steam is following. Too many games. Too much choice. The entry barrier for world wide publishing is gone - the flood gates are open and thousands of titles are being released.
Yes, a lot of crap is among them but here and there we find gems which never would have seen the light of the day in the past. It is amazing, and in my opinion the only light in the darkness of 2016.
This means
The market is cleaning itself. You either are among the top 10% of the low key indie type titles. The middle will die, quickly.
This means if you run a studio you either go big or you go small, lean agile. There is no other choice anymore.
You see studios dying. Or being closed. 2016 was already bad, 2017 will be worse. Consolidation is happening the the big ones eat up the talent left and form further mega studios to create their huge titles. Some will form smaller studios and lean produce creative gems. And many will fail. And the cycle repeats.
And beware when the current console generation is shrinking. It is not as far away as we hope. The last generation lasted 8 years. This one? Maybe 8 years, maybe 9. They hope to prolong it by updating their hardware. So we are in year 3, 5 more to go. Good luck boys and girls. Make great games and do not follow the main stream.
Update
Some feedback noted that NPD isn't tracking digital sales and most customers moved to digital now. This might make the numbers a bit better but not really so. Todays games with their 60GB downloads aren't for everyone (see previous post).
Another note regarding FPS: Overwatch seems to have taken a lot of these customers and locked them into their grind feast, so they won't have time for others as well. A title I overlooked in the above post.
Pro Tip for AAA pubs: there are more games out there then FPS. Do not forget the genres other people play or mid sized publishers will take them away from you.
Update 2
Most of the hit games I mentioned including CoD, Titanfall 2, Dishonored 2 are on sale for half the price. An indices that they don't sell as well as expected and wrongfully training customers its better to wait than to buy on release. Bad habit.
2016/11/15
Teut's World: Internet - and Games
Teut's World: Internet - and Games: I remember accessing the internet before the internet was born. With dial up modems. BBS they called those and you could type with other mem...
Internet - and Games
I remember accessing the internet before the internet was born. With dial up modems. BBS they called those and you could type with other members and access files. Most BBS had a limit of people to access it at once. Like 8 on luxurious BBS's.
Today we speed around with 100MBs and complain when the internet slows down. But we are spoiled children. Broadband users represent less than 8% of the internet population. We just get the wrong picture as we usually have friends who are nerds like we are.
Visiting other countries, or your country side, will teach you a lesson. When I visit my parents in southern Germany I always roll my eyes due to their internet. But they can't change it. No one is able to give them more than like 5MBit although they are near the Telekom research center where they test out the latest internet tech. Wtf?
Now look at our games. PS4 downloads of 50GB are normal now. PC games easily beat the 50GB barrier and you have a 9GB first day patch (hi Dishonored 2!). Thats not fun for people like my father ain't it.
And as we game developers are spoiled we really don't care. We don't see the problem. Publishers aren't interested either, as they say you already gave them your money when you start the download. So why care? Fuck them. Same applies to platforms like Steam. But most Steam users are core users right? Well, not really.
So many of these people walk into stores to buy the Disc. Yes, these round things still exist. They walk home and wait for hours, maybe even switching Discs every couple of hours as the drives are even slower than your internet speed. And then surprise. 10GB first day patch. Oh my.
Some time ago a company approached me to help them accessing my network as they have the coolest tech for large games. It allows playing the game minutes after you started the download. Yes, we all heard about it, and its not the streaming (which is dead). Its a downloader. I was skeptical. Why do I need it? I didn't. But my father would. OR anyone else with slow internet access loving games.
Meanwhile I am on their advisory board as their tech fully got me excited. It is a real download. No installation of strange drivers necessary. No change on the code of the game, so less friction implementing the technology. Coolest of the coolest. Get this. It starts Witcher 3 fully playable after 5 minutes on a 24MBit line. 5 MINUTES.
Players we show it love it. Developers love it. Publishers don't care. WTF? Wake up AAA publishers, there are millions of customers waiting for something like this. Check it out yourself.
This sounds like a self promotion. It isn't. It is a rant about the ignorance of the game industry about their customers.
Today we speed around with 100MBs and complain when the internet slows down. But we are spoiled children. Broadband users represent less than 8% of the internet population. We just get the wrong picture as we usually have friends who are nerds like we are.
Visiting other countries, or your country side, will teach you a lesson. When I visit my parents in southern Germany I always roll my eyes due to their internet. But they can't change it. No one is able to give them more than like 5MBit although they are near the Telekom research center where they test out the latest internet tech. Wtf?
Now look at our games. PS4 downloads of 50GB are normal now. PC games easily beat the 50GB barrier and you have a 9GB first day patch (hi Dishonored 2!). Thats not fun for people like my father ain't it.
And as we game developers are spoiled we really don't care. We don't see the problem. Publishers aren't interested either, as they say you already gave them your money when you start the download. So why care? Fuck them. Same applies to platforms like Steam. But most Steam users are core users right? Well, not really.
So many of these people walk into stores to buy the Disc. Yes, these round things still exist. They walk home and wait for hours, maybe even switching Discs every couple of hours as the drives are even slower than your internet speed. And then surprise. 10GB first day patch. Oh my.
Some time ago a company approached me to help them accessing my network as they have the coolest tech for large games. It allows playing the game minutes after you started the download. Yes, we all heard about it, and its not the streaming (which is dead). Its a downloader. I was skeptical. Why do I need it? I didn't. But my father would. OR anyone else with slow internet access loving games.
Meanwhile I am on their advisory board as their tech fully got me excited. It is a real download. No installation of strange drivers necessary. No change on the code of the game, so less friction implementing the technology. Coolest of the coolest. Get this. It starts Witcher 3 fully playable after 5 minutes on a 24MBit line. 5 MINUTES.
Players we show it love it. Developers love it. Publishers don't care. WTF? Wake up AAA publishers, there are millions of customers waiting for something like this. Check it out yourself.
This sounds like a self promotion. It isn't. It is a rant about the ignorance of the game industry about their customers.
2016/07/20
2016/07/17
WTF Niantic
So the servers of Pokemon Go are unstable.
The game crashes frequently.
The game loses it synch with the server often.
Bugs. Bugs.
Usually if companies release an online game and this happens they put a full stop on acquiring new users, even close down the registration and fix things first. As users are the most important thing you have. They are your customers.
Not so Niantic. Despite servers being overloaded they add country by country putting even more load on the servers - annoying most players.
I asked myself why. Niantic isn't stupid. So the only explanation I have is they want to increase the value of their company before users get bored with the game and numbers stabilize. To explain (easy model): a company's evaluation is usually based on yearly revenue times a multiplier, like 3. So if you do 100 million a year you are worth 300 million.
So Niantic adds countries to raise revenue so their evaluation gets higher and higher. I think there is someone negotiating with them to buy - and they release country by country to put pressure on them to close as otherwise they get more expensive over time. Nintendo surely is interested. Now they can afford it too - easily.
The game crashes frequently.
The game loses it synch with the server often.
Bugs. Bugs.
Usually if companies release an online game and this happens they put a full stop on acquiring new users, even close down the registration and fix things first. As users are the most important thing you have. They are your customers.
Not so Niantic. Despite servers being overloaded they add country by country putting even more load on the servers - annoying most players.
I asked myself why. Niantic isn't stupid. So the only explanation I have is they want to increase the value of their company before users get bored with the game and numbers stabilize. To explain (easy model): a company's evaluation is usually based on yearly revenue times a multiplier, like 3. So if you do 100 million a year you are worth 300 million.
So Niantic adds countries to raise revenue so their evaluation gets higher and higher. I think there is someone negotiating with them to buy - and they release country by country to put pressure on them to close as otherwise they get more expensive over time. Nintendo surely is interested. Now they can afford it too - easily.
2016/07/14
So Pokemon Go happened
Now news about it here. I might get paid for this ;)
Really. What did you expect. They could have slapped Pokemon to an average game and would sell tons. So they slapped it on this one. AR isn't doing a lot for the game, they could have skipped this. Pokemon is the secret sauce to its success.
Want proof? Look in what shitty condition the app is. No onboarding, crashes, glitches, server overloads, disconnects. Nintendo never ever released a game in this bad shape ever. No game would have gotten away with this, but Pokemon overshadows it as it is the first time people can enjoy Pokemon outside the Nintendo Hardware space - on their mobile phone. This alone sells anything.
More news might come. We'll see.
Really. What did you expect. They could have slapped Pokemon to an average game and would sell tons. So they slapped it on this one. AR isn't doing a lot for the game, they could have skipped this. Pokemon is the secret sauce to its success.
Want proof? Look in what shitty condition the app is. No onboarding, crashes, glitches, server overloads, disconnects. Nintendo never ever released a game in this bad shape ever. No game would have gotten away with this, but Pokemon overshadows it as it is the first time people can enjoy Pokemon outside the Nintendo Hardware space - on their mobile phone. This alone sells anything.
More news might come. We'll see.
2016/07/03
The bane of IP's
I have worked on games with foreign IP's a lot. You know you develop a game with an IP which you license. The industry has done this since their beginning and in the long term those business ideas fail. And there are reasons for this - but somehow they tend to forget - and history repeats again.
Soe of you might remember the time when Ocean, Activision and the rest bid themselves to death for arcade machine licenses. Outrun, Defender, R-Type etc. None of these games are around anymore. In fact most of us remember the original arcade developer and not the licensee. Who remembers that Activision did R-Type? In fact I produced R-Type on C64 and Amiga for them, but this is another story.
So this happened in the last weeks:
http://venturebeat.com/2016/06/28/kabam-to-make-mobile-strategy-game-based-on-james-camerons-avatar/
http://venturebeat.com/2016/06/28/plarium-teams-with-skydance-to-create-terminator-genisys-mobile-game/
Again f2p publishers turn to IP's to make their games more successful. Here is the thing. f2p games are successful if they live long. Decades. Believe me, the good f2p games are still around. Maybe you can check out Tibia, a game 18 years old and still feeding a developer of 70 people.
The problem lies here: who knows if the IP you license is still sexy in 5 years? or 10? Exactly then your game might fail. Who knows if the IP owner screws up their IP in the long run like the TV series Heroes or any other similar fail?
And this leads to the question: which IP's are worth licensing anyway?
I always tell my clients that IP's are only valuable if they represent a universe, not just a single story or setting. Lord of the Rings. Star Wars. Those are universes. Worth taking.
This again leads to the business problem that publishers bid themselves to death for the valuable IP's. Do you remember EA paying $200 million for Harry Potter? Where is that now?
This makes IP's very expensive in the long run and cuts into the development budget and ultimately into the quality. That was the reason why most IP based games simply sucked in the past. And will in the future. I say most, there are exceptions.
There are other problems too. The IP owners are very protective about their IP messing up your game - as they usually don't know how games work and their IP protection is more important to them than a good game, which they can't even quantify. This for example led to the strange fact that most racing games weren't allowed to damage the original cars of BMW, Mercedes etc.
And believe me, working with IP owners sucks energy out of the team and you, and the game ultimately, reducing your game to nothing.
So here oyu are sitting on a bad game with an IP you don't own after 5 years and wonder what to do.
Creating your own IP is 100x more valuable than buying someones IP. If you do you will never own your game. Never, wich contradicts everything you need to do to your game as a service. As you can't do whats good for your audience. Ultimately you will fail. Like so many others before.
Read the history of the game business. The 80's, 90's, 2000's. Every 10 years this happens. And fails.
p.s.: exceptions to the rule exist and you will notice that many use them as proof this works, however there are 10x more fails than successes with IP's. If you don't know how to work on IP's DONT DO IT.
Soe of you might remember the time when Ocean, Activision and the rest bid themselves to death for arcade machine licenses. Outrun, Defender, R-Type etc. None of these games are around anymore. In fact most of us remember the original arcade developer and not the licensee. Who remembers that Activision did R-Type? In fact I produced R-Type on C64 and Amiga for them, but this is another story.
So this happened in the last weeks:
http://venturebeat.com/2016/06/28/kabam-to-make-mobile-strategy-game-based-on-james-camerons-avatar/
http://venturebeat.com/2016/06/28/plarium-teams-with-skydance-to-create-terminator-genisys-mobile-game/
Again f2p publishers turn to IP's to make their games more successful. Here is the thing. f2p games are successful if they live long. Decades. Believe me, the good f2p games are still around. Maybe you can check out Tibia, a game 18 years old and still feeding a developer of 70 people.
The problem lies here: who knows if the IP you license is still sexy in 5 years? or 10? Exactly then your game might fail. Who knows if the IP owner screws up their IP in the long run like the TV series Heroes or any other similar fail?
And this leads to the question: which IP's are worth licensing anyway?
I always tell my clients that IP's are only valuable if they represent a universe, not just a single story or setting. Lord of the Rings. Star Wars. Those are universes. Worth taking.
This again leads to the business problem that publishers bid themselves to death for the valuable IP's. Do you remember EA paying $200 million for Harry Potter? Where is that now?
This makes IP's very expensive in the long run and cuts into the development budget and ultimately into the quality. That was the reason why most IP based games simply sucked in the past. And will in the future. I say most, there are exceptions.
There are other problems too. The IP owners are very protective about their IP messing up your game - as they usually don't know how games work and their IP protection is more important to them than a good game, which they can't even quantify. This for example led to the strange fact that most racing games weren't allowed to damage the original cars of BMW, Mercedes etc.
And believe me, working with IP owners sucks energy out of the team and you, and the game ultimately, reducing your game to nothing.
So here oyu are sitting on a bad game with an IP you don't own after 5 years and wonder what to do.
Creating your own IP is 100x more valuable than buying someones IP. If you do you will never own your game. Never, wich contradicts everything you need to do to your game as a service. As you can't do whats good for your audience. Ultimately you will fail. Like so many others before.
Read the history of the game business. The 80's, 90's, 2000's. Every 10 years this happens. And fails.
p.s.: exceptions to the rule exist and you will notice that many use them as proof this works, however there are 10x more fails than successes with IP's. If you don't know how to work on IP's DONT DO IT.
2016/06/23
Why do people play Game of War
If you haven't played Game of War you should. It represents a genre which kickstarted f2p in Europe. Among the originators was OGame, Tribal Wars, Travian, Ikariam, Grepolis and more. They all follow the same principles invented by a game called Planetarion - which failed to monetize as f2p wasn't invented back then.
And believe me every single game I mentioned is better than Game of War. So why do people play it and why is it so successful?
Game of War violates pretty much any f2p fair play rules. When you log back in after some days absence you have to close sales pop ups like crazy. Generally this game tries to sell you something at every corner of the UI. And it gets on your nerves, it disturbs game play. It is bad.
But it makes tons of money.
Why? Several reasons.
It was a first mover. Game of War was one of the first games of that successful genre being on mobile in a pretty solid quality.
It is a whale hunting game. The conversion of the game is bad but the ones who pay do so in exorbitant value. From stats I know it is by far the game with the highest average spending per paying user (ARPPU). Note: the value shown in the link is average YEARLY spending. Note 2: Some games excluded like Puzzle & Dragons which features a higher but only in Japan. Lets stick to world wide.
It is attractive to new gamers who don't know better. Yes. This. This is the prime reason. You should know that most gamers on mobile are new to games. This is a fact. So when they play Gamer of War they simply do not know the better ones. The the competition is either copying the bad style of Age of War or isn't known to them due to less marketing spend.
And the operator of Game of War knows this and puts their marketing where the new gamers are: on TV. TV ads attract a lot of users who aren't experience much in games. And when they are attracted ti strategy games they might try Game of War. The bad things of the game like the push to sales and pop ups are just something they think is normal. They accept this. Experienced gamers wouldn't. But those are the minority compared to the vast size of the mobile market.
There you have it. Game of War is successful as most of their players are new to games but fascinated by this successful genre. Competition is fierce. There are literally hundreds of these games in the App stores. And many of them are better. Some company make their living out of them like Kabam or Plarium.
The sad side story? German f2p publishers established f2p in Europe with this genre pre 2010 but lost the lead 60% market share (!) as they were too slow to move to mobile. Very sad.
And believe me every single game I mentioned is better than Game of War. So why do people play it and why is it so successful?
Game of War violates pretty much any f2p fair play rules. When you log back in after some days absence you have to close sales pop ups like crazy. Generally this game tries to sell you something at every corner of the UI. And it gets on your nerves, it disturbs game play. It is bad.
But it makes tons of money.
Why? Several reasons.
It was a first mover. Game of War was one of the first games of that successful genre being on mobile in a pretty solid quality.
It is a whale hunting game. The conversion of the game is bad but the ones who pay do so in exorbitant value. From stats I know it is by far the game with the highest average spending per paying user (ARPPU). Note: the value shown in the link is average YEARLY spending. Note 2: Some games excluded like Puzzle & Dragons which features a higher but only in Japan. Lets stick to world wide.
It is attractive to new gamers who don't know better. Yes. This. This is the prime reason. You should know that most gamers on mobile are new to games. This is a fact. So when they play Gamer of War they simply do not know the better ones. The the competition is either copying the bad style of Age of War or isn't known to them due to less marketing spend.
And the operator of Game of War knows this and puts their marketing where the new gamers are: on TV. TV ads attract a lot of users who aren't experience much in games. And when they are attracted ti strategy games they might try Game of War. The bad things of the game like the push to sales and pop ups are just something they think is normal. They accept this. Experienced gamers wouldn't. But those are the minority compared to the vast size of the mobile market.
There you have it. Game of War is successful as most of their players are new to games but fascinated by this successful genre. Competition is fierce. There are literally hundreds of these games in the App stores. And many of them are better. Some company make their living out of them like Kabam or Plarium.
The sad side story? German f2p publishers established f2p in Europe with this genre pre 2010 but lost the lead 60% market share (!) as they were too slow to move to mobile. Very sad.
2016/06/15
Why Apps might be dead (Update)
We remember. Years ago we called them Programs or Software. Since Apple launched the App Store we call them Apps, even on PC or other devices. Even the TV now has apps. Researchers forecasted the Web is dead, as its content and interaction move to App's of the provider instead. This is already happening as statistics prove (google for access numbers of mobile for Google, Youtube etc.)
Now Apple opened maps, messenger, Fotos and more of their apps to developers, allowing them to develop plugins. In my opinion Apple isn't doing this for fun, they are forced to do this.
The trend is less App switching. We have so many apps now that people simply no longer want to switch between them. Like going to maps to look for a restaurant, reserve in another app, book an Uber in their app to drive there.
This also explains the incredible value WeChat and Line have now. Check this out:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-06-13-line-to-launch-ipo-at-USD5-5-billion-valuation
This means WhatsApp is under pressure. The big secret of those new chat programs in Asia is their plugins. You can do everything inside the chat you normally do in Apps. In fact in China WeChat is so massive that if you aren't in WeChat with your service you virtually don' exist.
Facebook looks into this direction with their Messenger, but WhatsApp seems to sleep regarding this matter.
We'll see. the world of apps is changing again.
How this effects mobile games? Well, the first games making millions are inside WeChat. The other way around works too: why isn't your chat and clan chat no in those chat apps instead doing your own? There is my hint.
(Update) Techrunch well written article on the Messaging War:
https://techcrunch.com/2016/06/14/apples-ios-10-finally-truly-begins-the-mobile-messaging-war/
Now Apple opened maps, messenger, Fotos and more of their apps to developers, allowing them to develop plugins. In my opinion Apple isn't doing this for fun, they are forced to do this.
The trend is less App switching. We have so many apps now that people simply no longer want to switch between them. Like going to maps to look for a restaurant, reserve in another app, book an Uber in their app to drive there.
This also explains the incredible value WeChat and Line have now. Check this out:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-06-13-line-to-launch-ipo-at-USD5-5-billion-valuation
This means WhatsApp is under pressure. The big secret of those new chat programs in Asia is their plugins. You can do everything inside the chat you normally do in Apps. In fact in China WeChat is so massive that if you aren't in WeChat with your service you virtually don' exist.
Facebook looks into this direction with their Messenger, but WhatsApp seems to sleep regarding this matter.
We'll see. the world of apps is changing again.
How this effects mobile games? Well, the first games making millions are inside WeChat. The other way around works too: why isn't your chat and clan chat no in those chat apps instead doing your own? There is my hint.
(Update) Techrunch well written article on the Messaging War:
https://techcrunch.com/2016/06/14/apples-ios-10-finally-truly-begins-the-mobile-messaging-war/
2016/06/10
I am wondering .. a f2p Masterclass a good idea?
I play with this idea since some time and wonder how large the interest would be. Assume I do a 2 (or 3?) day Masterclass in f2p design covering all topics from monetization, system design, KPI optimization, Event design etc.
Of course the content would differ from the workshop you can find on youtube. That one was rather basic, this one is a designers in depth thing.
Would that be something you would be interested in? I would book a conference room in a Hotel you can stay and negotiate special deals. The evenings would be spend to mingle and talk about our favorite topics. Timeframe would be sometime mid/end of July. Or maybe the weekend before Gamescom?
The goal of the workshop would be to give you the weapons to properly design f2p games or optimize yours.
If you are interested shoot me an email and how many people would like to attend and what special interests you would have regarding topics and way how the master class would work.
Contact: teut986@gmail.com
Of course the content would differ from the workshop you can find on youtube. That one was rather basic, this one is a designers in depth thing.
Would that be something you would be interested in? I would book a conference room in a Hotel you can stay and negotiate special deals. The evenings would be spend to mingle and talk about our favorite topics. Timeframe would be sometime mid/end of July. Or maybe the weekend before Gamescom?
The goal of the workshop would be to give you the weapons to properly design f2p games or optimize yours.
If you are interested shoot me an email and how many people would like to attend and what special interests you would have regarding topics and way how the master class would work.
Contact: teut986@gmail.com
2016/05/29
The Damned App Store (Update)
Both of my versions (Amsterdam and Asia) of my talk for Casual Connect are online:
Asia / Singapore:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4gpHtYxf0I&feature=youtu.be
Europe / Amsterdam:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jU4sRmqNrI&feature=youtu.be
The video of the panel is also online now about Asian vs. Westenr mechanics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-pnSvEFztg&feature=youtu.be
Enjoy!
Asia / Singapore:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4gpHtYxf0I&feature=youtu.be
Europe / Amsterdam:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jU4sRmqNrI&feature=youtu.be
The video of the panel is also online now about Asian vs. Westenr mechanics:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-pnSvEFztg&feature=youtu.be
Enjoy!
2016/04/29
Update April 2016
I have been at Quo Vadis Developer conference in Berlin and it was a blast. I did my "The Damned App Store" talk which I will repeat at Casual Connect Asia in May - just in case you want to see it. Singapore is awesome, come visit! I will also be part on a panel which talks about "Asian game mechanics and the West".
The video of my talk will be online sometime after Casual Connect, so be patient.
Next directly after CC Asia are the German Developer Days in Frankfurt which we are attending.
And then finally a pause ... preparing my move here to Berlin during Summer. Maybe Scott Foe forces me to come to Casual Connect USA, we'll see.
The video of my talk will be online sometime after Casual Connect, so be patient.
Next directly after CC Asia are the German Developer Days in Frankfurt which we are attending.
And then finally a pause ... preparing my move here to Berlin during Summer. Maybe Scott Foe forces me to come to Casual Connect USA, we'll see.
2016/04/12
Mobile Game Development vs. AAA
So many developers think Mobile development is so easy. Reason being that many games are smallish casual games. But here is the thing:
Nah. Let a friend explain it much better, thank you Seppo for this summary on Facebook:
Seppo Helava
Nah. Let a friend explain it much better, thank you Seppo for this summary on Facebook:
Seppo Helava
Dear fellow game devs, those of you who work on console/AAA games: You may think mobile is trivial compared to what you're doing. And in some ways you're right.In some ways you're very, very wrong.
It's a different set of problems. But to do a mobile game-as-a-service, at scale, keeping them successful for multiple years, is *significantly* more complex than most linear console games.
Graphically probably a lot less intense in most cases (though not all).
Logically probably a little bit simpler as well, depending on the game (*in general*, there are significant exceptions).
Design-wise? Same or harder, because of the need to design in growth, evolution of the mechanics over significant time periods, and factor in most of the business/monetization in fairly direct ways.
Management/production-wise? *Significantly* harder. Rallying a bunch of people to a ship date is intense, and extremely difficult - to the point where basically no one in AAA gets it even marginally correct. But shipping new content on a weekly basis, ensuring 99.99% uptime, balancing stuff to not break the game overall even after years of updates? You're taking on the risk of shipping live content every week. The difficulty of that vs. shipping once at the end isn't comparable. It's a totally different problem but it's just as hard *or harder*.
So, I'm not saying Mobile >> console/AAA. But I'm saying that if you don't appreciate the complexity and difficulty of shipping a game that's successful and lasts multiple years, that's because you're not aware of what goes into it. Dismiss it at your peril. This is a skillset you will almost certainly have to learn in the next decade, and if you think it's easy, you'll be dead.
2016/03/05
Microsoft takes a dangerous path
If you have followed Microsoft since the release of Windows 10 and the XBox One you might have noticed a fundamental shift in strategy. Not many realize what the reasons are.
The first step was pressure for their prices of Windows. Others started to give away their OS for free, mainly Apple, and mobile does the same. So Microsoft gives away Windows 10 for free for all Windows 7/8 and Vista users. This hurts their financials but the important goal of Microsoft is different: to regain control of their OS ecosystem. The PC is as big as it is because there is a whole industry making money with it. Software, Hardware, Services, you name it. Without it the PC wouldn't have taken over the world. And all these industries make money without Microsoft seeing any share of the revenue. None.
Over time this ecosystem became fractured. In countries where the average salary is low pirate copies of Windows dominated. Locked out of updates they also locked themselves out of software that requires certain Windows versions or updates.
So one goal was to unify their ecosystem making it easier to regain control.
Two things made this possible:
First: the app store which they implemented poorly (ask developers trying to sell or update, its a nightmare) and where they try to mimic the mobile app stores or Apples (which btw failed as well, ask Companies trying to sell over the Mac OSx App Store).
Second the data mining. Windows 10 is a data leak for users. Microsoft collects tons of data and spies on you everywhere. They want the same power Google has. And yes I bet the NSA is happy as Microsoft is known to collaborate with them - a unified ecosystem is so much easier to spy upon. But that seems to be ok now and the NSA drama isn't popular anymore.
Now they announced to unify the XBox one and PC gaming ecosystem as well. In other words if Microsoft locks down game sales to their App Store only the world will experience drama. And yes they can do this. Its their eco system. Valve is worried as this attacks Steam directly and they saw it coming, hence their effort with Steam machines. Check interviews with Valves CEO.
Tim Sweeny, founder of Epic, maker of the Unreal engine, has clear words for this danger:
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/04/microsoft-monopolise-pc-games-development-epic-games-gears-of-war
If you ask developers working for Microsoft or you have sources inside Microsoft the situation is even more dramatic. Under the new lead games no longer are a priority. In fact Microsoft was thinking to get rid of their XBox department but the fear that competitors might buy out the things was big. So they integrated it into their other department which dreams about having a Settop box under your TV (note that movies etc are their priority, not games). If you read the history of the original XBox this fight was inside Microsoft years ago.
So here it comes. Microsoft will force all PC's to install Windows 10 by giving it out for free and stopping support for all other versions.
Microsoft will force all Software vendors to go through their App Store taking a share.
This includes games. Good bye Steam.
Next the Xbox One will be a PC Settop box soon instead a dedicated gaming platform. Including hardware updates - which leads to the fact that it will fail bad as somehow Microsoft forgot why initially consoles failed (Atari VCS time) and why the ecosystem worked when Nintendo changed it.
In the end PC gaming is in danger. In fact all of the PC is. As its strength was its open Software and Hardware ecosystem. Microsoft starts to copy Apple - in a bad way. Again no innovation. Just bad copies.
Dire future under the new Microsoft lead. Do not complain when it happens. As I Teut you so.
The first step was pressure for their prices of Windows. Others started to give away their OS for free, mainly Apple, and mobile does the same. So Microsoft gives away Windows 10 for free for all Windows 7/8 and Vista users. This hurts their financials but the important goal of Microsoft is different: to regain control of their OS ecosystem. The PC is as big as it is because there is a whole industry making money with it. Software, Hardware, Services, you name it. Without it the PC wouldn't have taken over the world. And all these industries make money without Microsoft seeing any share of the revenue. None.
Over time this ecosystem became fractured. In countries where the average salary is low pirate copies of Windows dominated. Locked out of updates they also locked themselves out of software that requires certain Windows versions or updates.
So one goal was to unify their ecosystem making it easier to regain control.
Two things made this possible:
First: the app store which they implemented poorly (ask developers trying to sell or update, its a nightmare) and where they try to mimic the mobile app stores or Apples (which btw failed as well, ask Companies trying to sell over the Mac OSx App Store).
Second the data mining. Windows 10 is a data leak for users. Microsoft collects tons of data and spies on you everywhere. They want the same power Google has. And yes I bet the NSA is happy as Microsoft is known to collaborate with them - a unified ecosystem is so much easier to spy upon. But that seems to be ok now and the NSA drama isn't popular anymore.
Now they announced to unify the XBox one and PC gaming ecosystem as well. In other words if Microsoft locks down game sales to their App Store only the world will experience drama. And yes they can do this. Its their eco system. Valve is worried as this attacks Steam directly and they saw it coming, hence their effort with Steam machines. Check interviews with Valves CEO.
Tim Sweeny, founder of Epic, maker of the Unreal engine, has clear words for this danger:
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/mar/04/microsoft-monopolise-pc-games-development-epic-games-gears-of-war
If you ask developers working for Microsoft or you have sources inside Microsoft the situation is even more dramatic. Under the new lead games no longer are a priority. In fact Microsoft was thinking to get rid of their XBox department but the fear that competitors might buy out the things was big. So they integrated it into their other department which dreams about having a Settop box under your TV (note that movies etc are their priority, not games). If you read the history of the original XBox this fight was inside Microsoft years ago.
So here it comes. Microsoft will force all PC's to install Windows 10 by giving it out for free and stopping support for all other versions.
Microsoft will force all Software vendors to go through their App Store taking a share.
This includes games. Good bye Steam.
Next the Xbox One will be a PC Settop box soon instead a dedicated gaming platform. Including hardware updates - which leads to the fact that it will fail bad as somehow Microsoft forgot why initially consoles failed (Atari VCS time) and why the ecosystem worked when Nintendo changed it.
In the end PC gaming is in danger. In fact all of the PC is. As its strength was its open Software and Hardware ecosystem. Microsoft starts to copy Apple - in a bad way. Again no innovation. Just bad copies.
Dire future under the new Microsoft lead. Do not complain when it happens. As I Teut you so.
2016/03/02
Casual Connect Amsterdam
So my talk at Casual Connect Amsterdam was a success. The room was packed, all seats taken and many people stood on the sides. Many ask for my slides or the video but I have to admit the video / slides will be delayed until after Casual Connect Asia where I will repeat a slightly longer edit of the same topic. Please be patient!
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